Even three months after losing power amidst a public uprising, there appears to be no sense of remorse within the Awami League regarding their actions. Instead, the party still views the entire incident as a “conspiracy.”
Notably, the Awami League has not publicly apologized for the heavy-handed approach used to suppress the student movement in July-August, which resulted in multiple fatalities.
The party’s top leaders continue to believe that Sheikh Hasina was ousted and forced to leave the country through a “planned conspiracy” disguised as a popular uprising.
Leaders of the Awami League have alleged that, as part of this conspiracy, cases have been filed against Sheikh Hasina and other leaders, with calls for the ban of the Awami League’s political activities.
However, despite the organizational collapse following the events of August, the party is attempting to rebuild. Party officials claim that a network has been established for communication among leaders and activists who are currently in hiding within and outside the country, and some grassroots members have reportedly begun returning to their local areas.
Recently, the Awami League organized its first formal event in three months, aiming to boost the morale of its supporters after the uprising. However, senior leaders have indicated that the party does not have immediate plans for an anti-government movement. Instead, they are observing whether public dissatisfaction over issues such as rising prices and law enforcement will grow to the point where the interim government loses support.
Grassroots members have expressed frustration over party leaders announcing plans from abroad, fearing this endangers those on the ground in Bangladesh. Analysts note that, regardless of government failures, the Awami League will face challenges returning to active politics if it fails to apologize for its past actions.
“Planned Conspiracy” Theory
From the outset, the Awami League has characterized the recent public uprising as a “planned conspiracy.” During the violent protests in July, which started as a student movement demanding reform in quotas, then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was the first to label it a conspiracy.
To this day, the Awami League continues to attribute the uprising to external influences, including alleged involvement by BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and foreign forces. The former Minister of State for Shipping, Khalid Mahmud Chowdhury, claimed that the same forces that opposed Bangladesh’s independence were involved, intending to portray Bangladesh as a failed state.
Sheikh Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, also voiced similar suspicions, indicating that he strongly believes a foreign intelligence agency provoked the protestors. Yet, even after ruling for a decade and a half, the Awami League questions why it couldn’t prevent the conspiracy it claims to have known about.
Despite these claims, images and videos widely shared at the time showed police, BGB, and armed Awami League members using live ammunition against protesters. These visuals undermined the party’s narrative of a third party’s involvement.
Avoiding Responsibility
Despite widespread reports of excessive force during the July-August crackdown, resulting in over 850 deaths and injuries to more than 20,000 people, the Awami League has largely denied responsibility. Leaders argue that a “third party” was involved, which they blame for civilian casualties.
Nevertheless, Awami League leaders do acknowledge that the party has made mistakes during its 15-year tenure. Violations of human rights, land grabbing, corruption, and large-scale money laundering have been recurrent criticisms during their time in power.
Attempts to Reorganize
Since the abrupt departure of Sheikh Hasina to India on August 5, the Awami League faced a severe leadership vacuum. However, the party is now attempting to reorganize itself, with a network established for communication among leaders and activists both domestically and abroad.
Top leaders have indicated that they are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach, observing public and political reactions to the interim government, while avoiding any large-scale anti-government activities for now.
Grassroots leaders, however, remain skeptical, wary of announcing programs from abroad while they remain at risk in the country. Many express frustration with leadership in exile, fearing they are being sacrificed while elites benefit from the party’s patronage.
Analysts’ Perspective
Political analysts argue that without acknowledging its mistakes and seeking forgiveness from the public, the Awami League may face significant challenges returning to active politics. The party’s recovery hinges on a thorough reflection on its past governance and regaining public trust.
